Q-Commerce Trends in the GCC

1. Market Size & Growth

• In 2023, the total food retail market in the GCC was estimated at US $127.2 billion and is projected to rise to US $162 billion by 2028.

• The broader GCC grocery and food sector revenue is forecast at US $130.9 billion in 2025, with an anticipated 4.52% CAGR through 2029.

2. Country Breakdown

🇦🇪 UAE

• Grocery market sized US $40 billion in 2023, expanding at a 6.5% five‑year CAGR.

• E-grocery revenues reached US $5.66 billion in 2024, expected to hit US $10.55 billion by 2028, with 12% user penetration.

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia

• Grocery market: US $62 billion in 2023, growing at 4.2% CAGR.

• 52% of FMCG sales take place through modern trade, compared to 83% in the UAE.

3. Digital Grocery Explosion

• GCC online grocery sales reached US $7.42 billion in 2024, projected to jump to US $53.6 billion by 2033 at a 23.35% CAGR.

• Digital contributes 2.9% of total food revenues in 2025.

4. Consumer Behavior & Value Focus

• 51% of Saudis and 53% of Emiratis prioritize value (price + promotions).

• Private label penetration remains low: ~3% in UAE and ~1% in KSA.

• 56% of UAE shoppers and 33% of Saudis value speed and convenience.

5. Health & Sustainability Trends

• GCC food consumption projected to reach 63.5 million MT by 2030, growing at 2.98% CAGR.

• Fruits and vegetables market is estimated at US $16.8 billion in 2025, expected to grow to US $21.2 billion by 2030 (4.8% CAGR).

• Consumers increasingly demand organic, plant-based, gluten-free, and locally-sourced products.

6. Strategic Trends & Keywords

Keywords: Omnichannel, click-and-collect, last-mile delivery, AI personalization, cold-chain logistics, private label, discount formats, shelf-ready packaging, local sourcing, hydroponics, food security.

Strategic Approaches:

• Value-led formats: streamlined assortments, price-led models.

• Supply chain optimization: centralized sourcing, automation, tech integration.

• Private-label expansion: tapping unmet demand in mid/low-income segments.

• Technology and AI: personalization, predictive stocking, loyalty analytics.

7. Opportunities & Challenges

✅ Opportunities:

• Growth in private label and discount formats

• Expansion into tier-2 cities

• Investment in cold-chain logistics and agri-tech

• Local food production and food security strategies

⚠️ Challenges:

• High logistics costs and heat-sensitive supply chains

• Cross-border and regulatory complexity

• Fragmentation and intense price-based competition

• Lack of consumer loyalty in commoditized categories

📌 Final Thoughts

The GCC grocery market in 2025 is robust and undergoing digital transformation. With over US $130 billion in annual revenue and rising, it presents strong opportunities for value-driven formats, private label development, and agri-tech innovation.

Market winners will excel at:

• Omnichannel strategy

• Tech-enabled personalization

• Private label execution

• Local sourcing and logistics agility

• Tech enabling Hyperlocal marketing & reach